Tuesday, 15 March 2011

If Gaddafi Succeeds in Libya!

Gaddafi and Sarkozy. They have since
become bitterest enemies.
The 42 year old regime of Muamar Gaddafi in Libya has come under intense attack as protesters who were once peaceful have become armed rebels wielding guns. Unlike the peaceful demonstrators in Egypt who remained peaceful even upon fierce provocation, those in Libya took up arms. The television screens are not showing massive crowds in Libya like it was in Egypt; there are no crowds but empty streets with mostly un-trained but well armed rebels!

Certainly, no country or government in the world would fold its arms when rebels take up arms against the government and destabilizing the country.
Over the years, Gaddafi had created an image for himself both in Africa and in the World. Indeed, Gaddafi had been noted to be a strong pan-Africanist and a strong advocate of African Unity. To show that he really meant business, he opened Libyan borders to other Africans. He is seen as a hero of African unity in Africa. Even now, there are a lot of Africans in Africa who are not daunted by what is happening in Libya and still see Gaddafi as an African hero.
Gaddafi’s support within Libya is enormous. Over the years, Gaddafi had ensured that the national resources were used in developing the country and had ensured the equitable distribution of the national cake. Libya presently has the largest man-made river in the world which Gaddafi constructed at a cost of $20 billion to water the entire desert to produce foodstuffs.
Libya therefore became a destination point for most Africans, who sometimes braced the odds and trekked through the desert to find greener pastures in Libya. There are for instance an estimated 10,000 Ghanaians in Libya. The Government of Ghana has so far evacuated over thousands of Ghanaians from Libya.
 Currently, it seems Gaddafi will triumph over the rebels if there is no international support for the rebels. It is this that perhaps explains why France and the UK are pushing albeit unsuccessful in convincing other EU leaders to endorse an imposition of a no-fly zone in Libya (which will be tantamount to declaring war in Libya.) France has taken the lead in recognizing rather hastily the rebels as the official representatives of Libya. When since have rebels been recognized as official representatives of a country even if there is a leader?
The reasons for France’s championing of the no-fly zone and military intervention in Libya remains unclear however, it ultimately has something to do with Libya’s oil. Nonetheless, Germany has become an antidote to France’s interventionist mindset and has strongly condemned it.
The Arab League has already betrayed Gaddafi and had endorsed rather hastily a no-fly zone over Libya. Their endorsement had received international acclaim but has rather seemed hypocritical. In Jordan, Bahrain, Tehran, Iran, Yemen, and all over the Middle East, peaceful demonstrators on the streets die everyday as a result of clashes with government forces. In singling out Gaddafi, they have only shown their disgust for the man.
No international body has so far endorsed the imposition of a no fly zone or any international intervention.
The US, noted for its interventionist ideas, has so far remained calm and calculating the chances of not repeating past decisions in Iraq, Afghanistan and according to Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, “a repeat of Vietnam.”
The EU has so far declined to take any concrete decision and would rather want it discussed at the UN Security Council meeting.
The African Union has clearly ruled out any possible foreign military intervention in Libya and has instead formed a committee of Presidents to visit Tripoli and resolve the crisis.
The G8 ministers, meeting in Paris, have also shied away from endorsing any no-fly zone in Libya, with Germany questioning France’s motives.     
Russia and China, who wield vetoes at the UN Security Council has already indicated that they would veto any resolution for military intervention in Libya.
Venezuela’s Chavez has also come out to condemn any international military intervention in Libya. He compared the outcome of any military action in Libya to the war in Vietnam.  
Thus Gaddafi is set on gaining control over Libya as government forces have now besieged the last rebel-controlled eastern town of Benghazi after taking from the rebels most of the oil producing towns.
Already, the signals of what is to come should Gaddafi succeed eventually are written on the board. Gaddafi is said to have called on Russia, China and India to come and invest in Libya’s oil.
If he succeeds, there will be serious repercussions for UK and France’s oil companies who have already invested in Libya’s oil.
When the dusts settles, either Gaddafi will withdraw himself from the Arab League, or the Arab League might just try to save its face by sacking him from the League.
Moreover, Gaddafi might no longer stop illegal immigrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea to Europe as a way of getting back at the west.
Gaddafi might also now tighten his ties with Russia and China and neglect Europe where Libya is among the largest supplier of oil.
Most commentary on Libya had always failed to establish the actual damage to civilian lives. The real intent has mostly shifted from the real situation on the ground to the West’s distaste for Gaddafi and his so called “eccentric behavior”.  It is clear that any international military intervention in Libya would rather worsen and aggravate civilian situations than it is now. The devil you know, they say, is better than the angel you don’t know.  

[This article was written by The TICKLISH's contributors and is copyrighted]

1 comment:

Pianki said...

I agree with what is said. It looks like since this Blog was written that devil has taken off several more layers of disguise.